FOMC Meeting Breakdown for Crypto Market: why Fed lowered interest rates at its meeting on December 10 2025

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve held a meeting. As a result, the key rate was lowered by 0.25% and now stands at 3.5%–3.75%.

This is the third consecutive rate cut: the regulator began easing its policy in September 2025.

Source: Tradingeconomics.com

ACCOMPANYING LETTER FROM THE FED

➠ The FED plans to launch its quantitative easing program (#QE) on December 12.

➠ Over the next 30 days, the FED will purchase $40 billion worth of Treasury bills.

➠ Economic activity is growing at a moderate pace; GDP forecast for 2025 is about 1.7%, for 2026 — about 2.3%.

➠ The labor market is showing signs of slowing down: employment growth has declined over the year, and the unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.5%.

➠ Inflation remains above target: the indicator has risen since the beginning of the year; the PCE forecast for 2025 is 2.9%, core inflation is 3.0%. An expected decline to 2.0% by 2028.

➠ For 2026, the Fed forecasts one rate cut of 25 bps, and for 2027 — also 25 bps.

➠ Rate decisions will depend on data on inflation, wages, employment, financial conditions, and global factors.

➠ Special attention is paid to risks to financial stability.

➠ Risks to the economy remain two-sided, but the balance is still tilted toward labor market weakness.

➠ The Fed is prepared to adjust policy in the event of “unforeseen events.”

➠ The long-term dual mandate remains unchanged: maximum employment and inflation near 2%.

Key statements by Jerome Powell (Fed Chair)

➠ The data did not change the current assessment of the economic situation.

➠ Inflation remains above target.

➠ The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling.

➠ The effects of the shutdown should be offset by higher growth in the next quarter.

➠ The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward.

➠ The main drivers are steady consumer spending and continued high AI spending.

➠ Little new inflation data has been released since the October meeting.

➠ Risks to inflation are skewed to the upside.

➠ Current rates are in the neutral range.

➠ Rate decisions will be made based on the results of each meeting.

➠ Purchases of US government bonds to manage reserves may remain high for several months to ease pressure on the money market.

➠ The 75 bps rate cut since September provides an opportunity to monitor economic developments.

➠ Progress has been made this year on non-tariff-related inflation.

➠ There are no signs of the economy overheating.

➠ Job growth in recent months may be overstated.

➠ Tariffs may cause a one-off increase in prices.

➠ Excluding the effect of tariffs, inflation is around 2%.

➠ AI is affecting the labor market situation, but it is not the main cause.

➠ There is a risk that inflation due to tariffs will prove to be more persistent.

Live broadcast recording of the meeting: YouTube

Source: Incrypted.com

After the announcement, large transactions took place

Trader DeFiTracer recorded the sale of $100 million worth of bitcoins from a single address within an hour, causing concern among market participants.

Source: Х

How crypto reacted to the FOMC FED Meeting 

Bitcoin reached a local high of $94,044. The ratio of positive to negative comments on social media remained moderate. Traders were cautious, given the effect of “buy on rumors, sell on facts.”

Source: BinanceEthereum showed more pronounced fluctuations. When the price of the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization reached $3,433, the share of positive comments on social media increased sharply. Traders who bought at the peak suffered losses when the price subsequently fell to $3,170.

The Fed and its potential impact on cryptocurrencies

According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meeting on January 28, 2026, is about 80%.

The probability of a rate cut is estimated at approximately 20%. The market is pricing in the current rate range of 3.50-3.75%.

Source: Incrypted.com

Fidelity has identified a major support zone for Bitcoin

Analysts at Fidelity have identified a major support zone for Bitcoin at $85,500. In this area, investors bought about 430,000 BTC, which is equivalent to approximately $39 billion.

The company noted that the market received a noticeable boost in this zone.

Source: Х

Different scenarios for Bitcoin's movement

Analysts have different assessments of Bitcoin's future movement. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe is considering a growth scenario. He noted that Federal Open Market Committee meetings are accompanied by increased volatility, so maintaining the $91,800 level is not guaranteed. If the price remains above this mark, he names $100,000 as the next key target.

Source: Х

The creator of the PlanC Bitcoin quantile model presented a long-term outlook. According to his model, the “rare heights” zone (quantiles 95–99.9) corresponds to a price range of $192,000 to $780,000 by 2026–2027. The model's minimum forecast is an “elevated level” (quantiles 85–95) with a target range of $151,000 to $599,000 over the same period.

Source: Х

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